Cluster Bombs: Potential Game-Changer in Ukraine’s War as Russia Signals Readiness to Deploy.
Russian President has issued a warning stating that Russia possesses an ample supply of cluster munitions and is prepared to utilize these controversial weapons in a retaliatory manner.
This statement comes after the recent delivery of cluster bombs to Ukraine from the United States. Cluster munitions are weapons that disperse multiple smaller explosive submunitions, or bomblets, across a wide area.
Putin revealed during an interview on the Rossiya-1 TV channel’s program “Moscow. Kremlin. Putin” that Russia possesses a diverse range of cluster munitions and, although they have not been employed thus far, they stand ready to deploy them if necessary.
He acknowledged that there had been a temporary shortage of munitions at one point but clarified that Russia had refrained from resorting to cluster munitions during that period.
However, Putin asserted that if cluster munitions are utilized against Russia, they reserve the right to respond proportionally.
He attributed the supply of cluster munitions by the United States to Ukraine’s shortage of shells, emphasizing that the Ukrainian army consumes a substantial number of shots daily. At the same time, the U.S. produces a monthly supply of 15,000 bodies in the 155mm calibre.
According to Putin, the shortage of shells in Ukraine has led them to accept the proposal of utilizing cluster munitions since alternative options are limited. He noted that even Europe is facing a scarcity of shells.
Thus, the provision of cluster munitions is the most viable solution for Ukraine’s shell shortage, as suggested by the United States.
The decision by the United States to provide cluster munitions to Ukraine comes at a time when Kyiv’s supplies of conventional artillery shells are running low.
Ukraine aims to break through Russian defences in its counteroffensive to regain control over territories occupied by Russia in the south and east of the country.
However, the supply of cluster munitions remains highly controversial. While not banned by the United States, Russia, or Ukraine, these weapons are outlawed in more than 100 countries under the global Convention on Cluster Munitions due to their significant risk to civilian populations.
The danger to children is of particular concern, as unexploded bomblets can remain hidden and pose a threat until unsuspecting individuals inadvertently trigger them.
Human rights organizations strongly condemn cluster munitions and advocate for a complete ban on their use.
Several of Ukraine’s international partners have reservations about the U.S. decision to provide cluster munitions to Kyiv.
It is believed that both Russia and Ukraine have already deployed cluster munitions since the conflict began in February 2022, as reported by the Cluster Munition Monitor civil society group, which is associated with the United Nations.
The United Nations has called on all parties involved in the conflict to cease the use of cluster munitions immediately.
The organization has deplored their usage, emphasizing that cluster munitions pose immediate dangers and impose severe long-term risks on local communities.
Over decades, up to 40% of cluster munitions do not explode upon impact, leading to intermittent detonations.
While the use of cluster bombs is viewed unfavourably by many of Ukraine’s NATO allies and human rights groups, defence experts argue that the uncomfortable reality is the urgent need to maximize the effectiveness of Ukrainian artillery fire and address ammunition shortages faced by Ukraine and NATO.
They contend that cluster munitions could play a decisive role in determining the outcome of the conflict, particularly given the extensive Russian defensive fortifications and the delay in receiving additional military support from allies during the counter-offensive.
Defence analysts Jack Watling and Justin Bronk from the RUSI think tank have emphasised cluster munitions’ potential value in facilitating the breakthrough of Russian trenches.
They argue that considering Russia’s extensive deployment of unmarked minefields, the risk to civilians from cluster munitions becomes relatively insignificant.
The current focus of Ukraine’s efforts involves a major offensive aimed at breaking through three successive lines of Russian defences to regain control of occupied Ukrainian territory.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) are confronted with navigating over 30 kilometres of complex and unmarked minefields, overcoming tank obstacles, and facing extensive trench lines. These defences are further reinforced by Russian uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs), artillery, and helicopters.
The analysts stress that the counteroffensive’s progress is critical in preventing Russia from prolonging the conflict indefinitely.
They assert that enabling Ukraine to succeed on the battlefield directly correlates with creating the conditions for a viable and lasting peace.
According to Watling and Bronk, Ukrainian artillery plays a critical role in suppressing indirect and direct fire from Russian forces, enabling Ukrainian troops to launch assaults on Russian trenches.
However, they highlight that Kyiv faces challenges due to a shortage of artillery compared to the Russian military. Additionally, limited ammunition stocks significantly constrain Ukraine’s ability to sustain a high operational tempo.
The United States is providing Ukraine with dual-purpose improved conventional munition (DPICM) rounds designed explicitly for use with 155-millimetre Howitzer cannons to address this issue.
Watling and Bronk emphasize that these DPICMs, usable with howitzers and multiple-launch rocket systems, greatly enhance the effectiveness of artillery fire against entrenched enemy troops.
The utilization of conventional artillery shells typically has a low probability of directly killing Russian troops unless they land precisely in a trench.
Even in such cases, the analysts point out that a high-explosive round would only cause shrapnel to scatter within the line of sight of the detonation point. However, DPICM rounds, with their 72 submunitions spread over a significant area, have a much greater lethal impact.
The endorsement and supply of cluster munitions to Ukraine have raised concerns among several of Ukraine’s allies. The United Kingdom, Canada, Spain, and Germany have reservations about this decision.
The White House has indicated that it received written assurances from Ukraine that the munitions would not be used in civilian or urban areas and records would be kept of their deployment. Ukraine has also committed to demining operations post-war to mitigate potential civilian harm.
Legal and security experts have argued that cluster munitions could undermine international humanitarian law. They emphasize the importance of states adhering to the rules of international humanitarian law during armed conflicts, regardless of the aggression by the opposing party.
The rules of war seek to protect civilians and minimize unnecessary suffering. As Ukraine fights not only for its territory but for the international rule of law, its conduct in hostilities must comply with these rules, according to experts from Chatham House.
Regarding cluster bombs, RUSI’s experts note that many other munitions also fail to explode, highlighting that cluster munitions are not fundamentally different.
Additionally, they point out that Ukraine intends to employ these weapons against Russian field fortifications located in open countryside, which are already surrounded by unmarked minefields and unexploded Russian ordnance. Consequently, these areas are inherently dangerous for civilians regardless of cluster munitions.
