Harvard Grad Pita Limjaroenrat’s Prime Ministerial Ambitions Thwarted by Thai Royalists in 2023.
Thailand’s Pita Limjaroenrat may have another opportunity to become the country’s prime minister in the upcoming week.
However, the path to his potential rise to power remains uncertain, particularly if the leader of the Move Forward Party, to which Limjaroenrat belongs, remains steadfast in his commitment to amend a law that prohibits criticism of the monarchy.
In the initial parliamentary vote held on Thursday, Limjaroenrat fell short by 51 votes of the required majority from the 749 members of Thailand’s bicameral National Assembly to secure the top job.
While he obtained 311 votes from his coalition comprising eight parties, he only received 13 votes out of 250 in the Senate. The Senate, established by the royalist military following a coup in 2014, consists mainly of conservative royalists.
Although this outcome was widely anticipated, it highlights the deep divisions and mistrust among the royalist senators towards Limjaroenrat and his Move Forward Party’s anti-establishment agenda.
Moreover, it underscores the potential risk of prolonged political instability in Thailand, Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy.
According to a research note by Grace Lim, an analyst at Moody’s Investors Service, if a prolonged delay in forming a new government or the eventual prime minister lacks a popular mandate, it could lead to a resurgence of large-scale protests in Thailand.
Lim pointed out that persistent political tensions can undermine the credibility and effectiveness of Thailand’s institutional frameworks.
This could hinder the authorities’ ability to implement macroeconomic policies and address long-term issues such as an ageing population and labour skills.
Another parliamentary vote is tentatively scheduled for Wednesday. Pita Limjaroenrat, a 42-year-old Harvard Kennedy School graduate, can stand for prime minister again if his eight-party alliance nominates him.
However, if he is not set, the Pheu Thai party, the second-largest party in the coalition along with Move Forward, may present its candidate from the three candidates it had previously proposed.
Among the three candidates previously put forward by the Pheu Thai party, should Pita Limjaroenrat not receive the nomination for prime minister, the party may consider other options.
These include Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the daughter of the exiled populist former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who has garnered attention due to her family’s political legacy. Another potential candidate is Srettha Thavisin, a former property tycoon with notable business experience.
The third candidate, Chaikasem Nitisiri, holds the party’s chief of strategy and political direction position, bringing valuable expertise and insight to the table. These potential alternatives reflect the party’s efforts to carefully consider individuals who can effectively lead and represent their interests if allowed to become the country’s prime minister.
During the parliamentary proceedings on Thursday, numerous senators expressed their strong opposition to the Move Forward Party’s proposal to amend Article 112, also known as Thailand’s lèse-majesté law, which criminalizes criticism of the monarchy.
Certain senators argued that the wording of the amendment submitted by the party a few years ago indicates a potential intention to dismantle the law altogether.
However, the Move Forward Party has vehemently denied these allegations and reaffirmed that its objective is to revise specific aspects of the law to prevent its misuse as a political tool.
The party maintains that its proposed amendments aim to strike a balance between protecting the monarchy and safeguarding freedom of expression without seeking to undermine the institution itself.
By emphasizing that their intention is not to abolish the lèse-majesté law entirely, the Move Forward Party seeks to address concerns about potential repercussions on the monarchy while advocating for necessary changes to prevent the law’s exploitation for political purposes.
The party’s position reflects a delicate approach to amending the rule, considering the importance of respecting the monarchy and protecting citizens’ rights to freedom of speech.
Punchada Sirivunnabood, an associate professor of politics at Mahidol University in Bangkok, expressed scepticism regarding the potential for acceptance of even partial revisions to the lèse-majesté law by conservative parties and the older generation. She believes their position on the matter is unlikely to change, further complicating the prospects for amending the law.
According to reports, the proposed amendments by the Move Forward Party to the lèse-majesté law include a significant reduction in the maximum prison sentence from the current 15 years to just one year for defaming the king and six months for defaming the queen, heir, or regent.
The younger generation in Thailand has become disillusioned with the country’s royalist military establishment, partially due to using the lèse-majesté law against several young protesters in 2020.
Thai Lawyers for Human Rights reported that of the 1,914 prosecutions linked to the 2020 protests, around 250 were related to the lèse-majesté law, with many minors among the cases.
Following Thursday’s vote, Pita Limjaroenrat expressed that many senators may have yet to be able to vote freely due to various pressures and incentives. He intended to re-strategize and persuade them to align with the people’s will.
In a late move on Friday, lawmakers from the Move Forward Party attempted to exclude junta-appointed senators from participating in the subsequent prime ministerial vote by proposing an amendment to Article 272 of the junta-sponsored constitution.
However, passing the amendment faces significant hurdles. The Move Forward Party would require at least 376 votes from the National Assembly, including approval from one-third of senators and a minimum of 20% of votes from opposition parties.
The process to achieve these thresholds presents further challenges to the party’s efforts to enact changes to the lèse-majesté law and potentially secure the prime ministerial position.
Move Forward Party’s victory in the May elections, driven by the support of younger Thais, resonated with echoes of past student protests and marked a significant shift in Thailand’s political landscape. The party campaigned on an ambitious agenda of structural reforms, targeting the monarchy, monopolies, and the military.
This agenda was an extension of the goals set by student protests over two years ago. The dissolution of Future Forward sparked these protests, the predecessor entity of Move Forward, which was highly critical of the then Prime Minister Prayut Chan-ocha. Prayut, a former military general, had come to power through a 2014 coup and introduced constitutional changes in 2017.
The electoral success of Move Forward and the Pheu Thai Party signified a sweeping aside of conservative politicians who had held power for nine years during the military rule.
Despite securing a slim majority in the elections, the Move Forward Party’s ambitious reform agenda has become vulnerable to the actions of the institutions it seeks to reform.
The persisting interlocking patronage networks challenge the party’s efforts, even though influential business families have been removed from power in the recent election.
The outcome of the constitutional court’s rulings on Pita Limjaroenrat’s election qualifications and the constitutionality of Move Forward Party’s proposed amendments to the lèse-majesté law are vital risks, according to Citi economist Nalin Chutchotitham.
The court complaint against Limjaroenrat, accusing the party’s reform plans of an attempt to overthrow the democratic government with the king as the head of state, adds to the uncertainties.
Moreover, the Election Commission has recommended Limjaroenrat’s disqualification as a member of parliament due to a violation of electoral rules related to his ownership of shares in a defunct media company inherited from his late father.
These recent developments resemble the events that led to the dissolution of the party’s predecessor, Future Forward.
The disqualification of Future Forward’s leader, Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, for failing to declare his shares in a media company, and the subsequent disqualification of Piyabutr Saengkanokkul, a constitutional law scholar and professor who served as Future Forward’s secretary-general, draw an uncanny parallel.
Punchada Sirivunnabood, a professor at Mahidol University, expressed scepticism, stating that history is likely to repeat itself with Pita Limjaroenrat facing similar challenges as Thanathorn and Piyabutr did a few years ago.
The pattern suggests that little is expected to change, raising concerns about the potential obstacles and setbacks the Move Forward Party may encounter in its reform efforts.
