Hezbollah Involvement in Israel-Hamas Conflict a Potential Game Changer, Middle East Expert Warns, 2023.
Tensions in the Middle East have escalated as an exchange of fire occurred between the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah and Israeli armed forces in northern Israel. This development has raised concerns that the ongoing conflict in Gaza could spill over into a regional crisis, potentially involving other critical actors like Hezbollah and Iran.
With the possibility of an Israeli ground incursion looming in northern Gaza, analysts are sounding alarms about the potential for the conflict to expand and draw in other regional players. Firas Maksad, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, highlighted the significance of Hezbollah’s involvement, stating that it would be a “game-changer” if the group decided to join the conflict in Israel.
Maksad emphasized that Hezbollah is widely recognized as one of the world’s most powerful non-state military organizations, surpassing Hamas, which has been fighting in Gaza. Such a development could have far-reaching implications not only for Israel but also for the entire region.
Hezbollah, often described as a political party and paramilitary group, is designated as a terrorist organization by the United States. In Lebanon, it wields significant power through its Shiite political party, which holds 62 seats in the country’s Parliament and its Iran-backed proxy militant unit.
The origins of Hezbollah, or the “Party of God,” trace back to the Lebanese civil war in 1982 when it received support from Iran and Iran’s Revolutionary Guard. The group’s influence grew substantially after a war with Israel in 2006, and its military wing has since become the dominant military force in Lebanon, surpassing the national army.
However, experts argue that Hezbollah may not enjoy the same level of domestic popular support it had in 2006 to launch a military operation in Israel’s current conflict with Hamas.
Joseph Daher, the author of “Hezbollah: The Political Economy of Lebanon’s Party of God,” pointed out that Hezbollah has evolved from being solely a Lebanese political and military actor to a key regional player. Nonetheless, it faces opposition and criticism from Lebanon’s Christian community.
The extent of Hezbollah’s involvement in the conflict will depend on various factors. Still, it possesses substantial military experience, especially from its participation in the Syrian military scene, as well as in Iraq and to a lesser extent Yemen.
Daher also emphasized the intrinsic ties between Hezbollah and Iran, ideologically and in terms of political, military, and economic links. Despite this strong connection to Iran, Hezbollah also operates as a Lebanese actor with a degree of autonomy.
Hilal Khashan, a professor of political science at the American University of Beirut and the author of “Hizbullah: A Mission to Nowhere,” expressed his belief that Hezbollah would be hesitant to engage in the conflict fully.
He suggested that Hezbollah would not open a front from southern Lebanon against Israel, as this could give Israel a pretext to launch a military campaign against Lebanon.
Furthermore, through intermediaries, Iran has reportedly conveyed to Israel and the United States that it would restrain Hezbollah from escalating the situation.
While the deputy chief of Hezbollah, Naim Qassem, announced the group’s readiness to contribute to the fighting, he also mentioned that they had received behind-the-scenes calls from various international powers, Arab countries, and United Nations envoys urging them not to intervene.
Nonetheless, he indicated that these appeals would not deter Hezbollah from considering its options in the conflict.
In summary, the exchange of fire between Hezbollah and Israeli forces in northern Israel has raised concerns about the potential for the Gaza conflict to escalate regionally. Given its military prowess and regional influence, Hezbollah’s involvement could be a significant game-changer.
However, the extent of its involvement remains uncertain, and it will depend on various factors, including domestic and international considerations. The situation is delicate, with regional and global powers closely monitoring developments in the Middle East to prevent further escalation.
Lebanon is currently grappling with an unprecedented economic crisis, one of the most severe in its history. This crisis has been marked by triple-digit inflation and a drastic devaluation of its currency, which has lost over 90% of its value since the economic turmoil began in 2019.
The dire economic conditions have pushed nearly three-quarters of the Lebanese population below the poverty line.
At the heart of this crisis is Hezbollah, a powerful Shiite militant group that significantly influences Lebanon. Hezbollah exercises strong control over border crossings and wields substantial political clout, which it often leverages to obstruct critical political appointments. This has further compounded the instability and economic woes in the country.
Hezbollah’s involvement in multiple regional conflicts has strained its resources and capabilities. The group has been actively fighting alongside President Bashar Assad’s forces in Syria and participating in conflicts in Iraq and Yemen.
Under these circumstances, if Hezbollah opened a new front in Israel, it could be an overwhelming challenge for the group. Experts suggest that Iran, which supports Hezbollah, might be hesitant to deploy its most potent international militia to defend Hamas in a fresh conflict in Gaza or Israel.
Firas Maksad, a Middle East expert, emphasized that Hezbollah must consider the sentiments of the Lebanese public. Lebanon’s populace is grappling with what Maksad described as “war fatigue” due to Hezbollah’s extensive involvement in various regional conflicts.
The economic collapse in Lebanon has added to the pressure on Hezbollah’s constituencies. These factors could influence Hezbollah’s decision-making regarding its level of involvement in any new conflict.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has hinted at the possibility of launching a ground invasion in Gaza in the near future. In response to this, the Biden administration has shown solidarity by dispatching a carrier strike group to the Eastern Mediterranean, along with the U.S. Secretary of State.
The United States is actively working to deter both Hezbollah and Iran from entering the conflict, recognizing the potential for further regional destabilization.
The deployment of the USS Gerald R. Ford is seen as a measure by the administration to contain the escalating conflict and prevent it from spiralling further out of control.
The threat posed by Hezbollah’s formidable military force is a significant concern in the region. As noted by Professor Khashan, the armed component of Hezbollah is akin to a medium-sized European army in terms of its capabilities.
It possesses the capacity to outmatch the Lebanese military or potentially carry out operations in Saudi Arabia. However, Khashan also cautioned that Hezbollah, while well-trained in asymmetric warfare, would face significant challenges if it were to engage in a total war scenario against the Israel Defense Forces (IDF).
In summary, Lebanon’s severe economic crisis has left the country in a state of turmoil, with Hezbollah playing a pivotal role in its governance. The group’s extensive regional commitments and the economic hardships faced by its constituents make the prospect of opening a new front in Israel or Gaza a complex decision for Hezbollah.
The United States is actively working to prevent further escalation, recognizing the potential for a broader regional conflict. The formidable military capabilities of Hezbollah are a significant factor to consider in the evolving dynamics of the Middle East.
