India’s G20 Presidency at Risk Amid Ukraine War’s Impact on Consensus Hopes.
This weekend, leaders from the Group of 20 (G20) nations will convene in New Delhi to culminate India’s year-long G20 presidency. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has effectively used this rotating presidency to enhance India’s global significance, emphasizing its emergence as a prominent player on the world stage.
However, India’s diplomatic efforts face a significant challenge as they strive to secure concrete multilateral outcomes during the upcoming G20 leaders’ summit.
Previous attempts to garner consensus for joint communique in various key areas during India’s presidency have faltered due to disagreements, primarily driven by objections from Russia and China regarding language concerning the Ukraine crisis.
This year has been a pinnacle for Indian diplomacy, with the country also assuming the rotating presidency of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Nonetheless, these extensive efforts may yield little, potentially diminishing India’s international credibility and affecting Prime Minister Modi’s domestic messaging.
Manjari Chatterjee Miller, a senior fellow for India, Pakistan, and South Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington, D.C., highlighted the unique emphasis placed on India’s G20 presidency by the Modi government, effectively using it as a continuous platform to promote India and its leadership.
This strategy has created expectations for India to achieve tangible breakthroughs, particularly in bridging the gap between the Global South and the Western world.
However, the persistent challenges Russia and China posed, especially with President Vladimir Putin and President Xi Jinping abstaining from the September 9-10 meeting, cast doubt on the prospects for significant progress.
President Putin has refrained from traveling outside Russia since the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant in March, implicating him and his allies in war crimes in Ukraine.
As such, the chances of substantial advancements during India’s G20 presidency appear increasingly uncertain. The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has cast a long shadow over the G20 meetings convened by India during its presidency.
India had ambitious goals, seeking consensus on various issues, including establishing a regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies, addressing the debt crises facing developing countries, implementing reforms in multilateral banks to promote sustainable development, and welcoming the African Union as a G20 member.
Despite its neutral stance on the Ukraine crisis, New Delhi has struggled to broker unified statements in any of these key discussion areas since it assumed the G20 presidency in December 2022. Instead, the outcomes have been limited to non-binding chair’s summaries and documents.
In a development meeting in Varanasi in June, Russia distanced itself from the outcome document due to references to the Ukraine conflict, while China insisted that the outcome should not reference the crisis.
Pramit Pal Chaudhuri, Head of Eurasia Group’s South Asia practice, noted that the original language in these discussions was accepted by Russia during the Bali G20 meeting, with Indian diplomats playing a significant role in securing Russian acceptance.
However, Russia’s position has since hardened, and China has joined in opposing the original language derived from a UN Security Council resolution.
As of the latest updates, India continues to grapple with the challenge of finding language acceptable to all 20 G20 member countries. If this gap cannot be bridged, there is a real possibility that no joint statement will be issued at the upcoming G20 leaders’ summit in New Delhi, and a subsequent action plan may also be elusive.
Russia’s Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, who is set to represent Russia at the G20 summit instead of President Putin, has reportedly warned that there will be no general declaration at the meeting if Russia’s position is not reflected in the statements.
The Kremlin maintains that its actions in Ukraine constitute a “special military operation” in response to what it perceives as an existential threat from the West, which it believes is determined to destabilize Russia.
In summary, India’s efforts to make substantive progress on a wide range of issues during its G20 presidency have been hampered by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Despite India’s diplomatic efforts, the inability to reconcile differing positions among G20 members, particularly Russia and China, threatens to result in a lack of consensus and concrete outcomes, potentially undermining the significance of India’s G20 leadership.
The G20 presidency, which has seen more than 200 meetings convened across India, could be a setback for Prime Minister Modi’s government. However, it’s essential to acknowledge the effort put into transforming what is typically an elitist and routine event into something that resonates with the entire nation.
Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) deserves credit for this approach, making the G20 presidency accessible and understandable for the general population.
Modi’s strategy extended beyond just adorning streets with banners and signs for G20 meetings. He utilized these events to enhance the cleanliness of host cities, promote local products, and more.
Modi sought to portray these efforts nationally as a significant recognition of India’s arrival on the global scene under his leadership. While the messaging has been strong, gauging the actual reception and impact remains challenging.
The most substantial risk for Modi lies in the absence of tangible multilateral achievements from India’s G20 presidency despite significant efforts and investments. This shortfall could potentially affect the legacy and standing of his Hindu nationalist BJP, especially with national elections looming next year.
Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar highlighted the “unanimous support” from G20 member states for two outcomes proposed by India at the Varanasi G20 ministerial meeting despite Russia and China abstaining. However, there is a risk of voter backlash or cynicism if citizens perceive that much money was spent with little concrete results.
Nevertheless, Modi can point to India’s increasing role as a key global player, particularly in the context of the Indo-Pacific strategy aimed at countering China’s influence, where India has emerged as a strategic U.S. ally.
India has adeptly maintained diplomatic relations with Russia while deepening ties with the U.S. and its allies through initiatives like the Quad cooperation in critical technology and defense, indicating a gradual geopolitical shift.
Modi’s efforts to make the G20 presidency more inclusive and impactful have been commendable. Still, the need for concrete multilateral accomplishments poses a potential challenge, especially in the run-up to national elections. Nonetheless, India’s evolving global role, balancing relations with Russia and the U.S., underscores its growing significance internationally.
Highlighting India’s growing strategic importance, President Biden welcomed Prime Minister Modi in June, marking Modi’s first state visit to the United States. This warming of India-U.S. relations contrasts India’s ongoing tensions with China.
India and countries like Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Taiwan strongly criticized China for releasing a new national map that lays claim to contested territories. This rebuke underscores India’s willingness to assert itself in regional disputes.
Amid the U.S.’s increasing efforts to restrict strategic technology transfer to China for national security reasons, India is poised to benefit as American companies seek to diversify their supply chains away from China.
In January, India’s commerce minister revealed that Apple was manufacturing its latest iPhone 14 and aimed to produce 25% of all iPhones there. Apple’s drive to relocate its assembly operations from China gained urgency due to escalating U.S.-China trade tensions and disruptions caused by Beijing’s zero-Covid policy.
This shift in manufacturing aligns with India’s growing economic influence, forming the foundation for its greater confidence and assertiveness on the global stage. The International Monetary Fund predicts India will be the world’s fastest-growing major economy this year.
During Modi’s decade in power, the BJP government has implemented liberalizing measures in foreign direct investment policies, infrastructure development, and digitalization efforts in the world’s fifth-largest economy. These economic policies have favored India for international investors and as an attractive manufacturing alternative to China.
Pravin Krishna, a professor of international economics at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies, points out that these factors converge at a propitious moment, coinciding with India’s hosting of the G20.
This convergence allows India to showcase itself as an improved economy, a desirable destination for international investors, a potential manufacturing hub, and an alternative to China—an aspiration India has pursued for several years.
In summary, India’s deepening ties with the United States, assertiveness in regional disputes, and economic reforms have positioned it as an attractive destination for international investment and a viable alternative to China, making this a fortuitous time for India to assert itself on the global stage.
