Poland’s Elections: A Turning Point for EU Unity and Backing Ukraine, 2023.
Poland’s upcoming election on October 15th is of international significance, as its outcome is poised to influence its ties with the European Union and Ukraine.
The current ruling rightwing Law and Justice (PiS) party, which seeks an unprecedented third term, is facing off against the opposition group Civic Coalition (KO), led by former European Council President Donald Tusk and his liberal Civic Platform party. The election campaigns have primarily revolved around sovereignty, identity, and migration issues.
Despite facing criticism for curbing judicial independence, media freedom, and activist rights, the Law and Justice party remains popular, especially in rural areas. High inflation rates have impacted the economy, but Poland has sustained robust economic growth recently. Wages have risen, and unemployment has fallen.
Still, the election outcome is expected to be close, potentially leading to a hung parliament with smaller parties playing a more significant role. A significant number of Polish expatriates have registered to vote in this election.
The far-right Confederation party, often viewed as a potential kingmaker, could unexpectedly support the opposition rather than the United Right grouping led by Law and Justice. This shift in support may be tied to the Confederation party’s stance on Ukraine.
Poland’s relationship with the EU and its institutions has been strained under the leadership of Law and Justice. The EU has criticized the government and withheld funding over concerns about the rule of law. Donald Tusk, if elected, has promised to address these issues and unlock EU funding, which will be closely monitored by investors.
While Poland has supported Ukraine in the past, a recent dispute with Ukraine over grain exports has created tensions. This dispute led to Poland’s decision to halt weapon supplies to Ukraine. However, Tusk has emphasized the importance of a pro-Ukrainian policy while safeguarding domestic interests.
Poland’s election follows Slovakia’s recent election, which saw populist former Prime Minister Robert Fico return to power with a firm EU-critical and Russia-sympathetic stance. Slovakia, along with rightwing-led Hungary, has also clashed with Ukraine over the grain export issue and criticized the EU’s handling of various policies.
Poland, as the most influential of the three countries, could further shape the direction of these criticisms and affect the EU’s policy goals.
The election’s outcome holds significant implications for Poland’s democratic institutions, its position in the European Union, and its foreign policy concerning Ukraine and Germany. The election may also lead to a challenging period of government formation.
Regarding the market impact of the election results, it is expected to be limited due to checks and balances within Poland and between the country and the EU. If the Civic Coalition led by Tusk wins, a closer relationship with the EU, smoother EU fund disbursements, and a potential reversal of some of PiS’s less market-friendly policies are anticipated.
In the event of a PiS coalition win, the Polish zloty could depreciate slightly due to a deterioration in the country’s EU relationship. However, this depreciation is likely to be short-lived, as Poland and the EU share common geopolitical interests.
In summary, Poland’s upcoming election is a pivotal moment with far-reaching consequences for its relationship with the European Union, its stance on Ukraine, and its position in the region.
The results may impact not only the country’s domestic policies but also its role in shaping the broader European political landscape.
